Identification of Key Drivers and Critical Uncertainties Shaping the Future of Human Capital Governance in the Public Sector by 2035: A Systematic Review

Kazemi, Mohammadreza; Pourezzat,, Ali Asghar; Dehghanpour-Farashah, Afsaneh; Eivazi, Mohammad Rahim; Hoseini Moghadam, Mohammad

doi:10.22034/jdhcm.2025.2069375.1213

Identification of Key Drivers and Critical Uncertainties Shaping the Future of Human Capital Governance in the Public Sector by 2035: A Systematic Review

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Mohammadreza Kazemi ¹

Ali Asghar Pourezzat, ²

Afsaneh Dehghanpour-Farashah ³

Mohammad Rahim Eivazi ⁴

Mohammad Hoseini Moghadam ⁵

¹ PhD Candidate Department of Futures Studies, Alborz Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

² Professor, Faculty of Public Administration and Organizational Sciences, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

³ Assistant Professor, Faculty of Governance, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

⁴ Professor, Faculty of Governance, College of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

⁵ Assistant Professor, Foresight Department, Institute for Social and Cultural Studies, Tehran, Iran.

10.22034/jdhcm.2025.2069375.1213

Abstract

Background & Purpose: Iran's public administration faces chronic internal challenges amidst external pressures from technological advancements and new governance paradigms, creating profound uncertainty. This study aims to identify the key drivers and critical uncertainties shaping the future of public sector human capital governance towards the 2035 horizon, providing a foundation for strategic foresight and scenario planning.
Methodology: A systematic literature review was conducted following PRISMA guidelines. Major international and national databases were searched for relevant studies published between 2010 and 2025. The final selection of 65 scholarly sources was analyzed using thematic analysis to extract key findings.
Findings: The review identified four key drivers: 1) Technological transformation (AI and automation); 2) Socio-demographic shifts; 3) Economic and competitive pressures; and 4) The paradigm shift toward networked governance. Furthermore, two critical uncertainties with the highest impact and unpredictability were pinpointed: a) The political will for deep structural reforms, and b) The strategic approach to integrating technology and human capital.
Conclusion: The future of public human capital governance is not predetermined but will emerge from the interplay of these forces. The interaction of the two critical uncertainties defines a matrix of four plausible scenarios. The study concludes that achieving the desirable “Smart Transformation” scenario requires concurrent and decisive strategic choices in both structural reform and the human-centric integration of technology.

Keywords

Human Capital Governance

Futures Studies

Key Drivers

Critical Uncertainties

Systematic Review

Subjects